If you are at the Stardew Valley Fall Fair and wondering how to win tons of Star Tokens, this guide is precisely for you. The spinning wheel is a perfect way to earn lots of tokens for buying both the Rarecrow and the Stardrop.
What is the Spinning Wheel?
On Tuesday, Fall 16th, every year in Pelican Town there is a festival that takes place in the town square. To attend the fair, you have to enter Pelican Town any time between 9 AM and 3 PM. During the fair, there are multiple different games you can play and a Grange Display contest to win. All of these activities give you Star Tokens. These tokens are the biggest reason to go to the fair. This is because you can get a few amazing items that are both collectables and enhance your gameplay tremendously.
The items you are able to buy with Star Tokens include a Stardrop, a Rarecrow, a fedora, and various consumables, items, and furniture. There are eight Rarecrows in total to find. They are nice to collect because after collecting them all, you are able to craft a deluxe scarecrow. Though of course, the most coveted item in the fair shop is the Stardrop. Consuming these fruit increases your maximum energy by 34. After collecting all 7 Stardrops, you will nearly double your starting energy. So buying the one at the Stardew Valley Fair is a must.
The spinning wheel is one of the fair games where you are able to gamble your Star Tokens. The game is found towards the bottom right area of the town square, below Pierre’s General Store. It is located directly underneath the token seller sitting inside the red and white booth. The game itself is manned by a gentleman in a black suit with glasses and a hat .
If you want to learn about the other fair games, check out our complete Stardew Valley Fall Fair guide.
How to Win Star Tokens
The spinning wheel is the fastest way that you can win Star Tokens (other than just buying them all from the token selling booth of course). Utilizing the spinning wheel is fairly simple. Interacting with the fair game will bring up a menu where you can select whether or not you want to bet your star tokens on the game. You can select what color you think the spinner is going to land on, either orange or green. Then you get to type how many Star Tokens you want to bet on a single spin.
Normally, if the game was not rigged, it would be a simple 50/50 chance of it landing on either color and you would not be able to necessarily game the system to make star tokens. Luckily for us, it is rigged. At the Stardew Valley fall fair, overall the mathematical probability of the spinning wheel landing on green is 75% versus 25% for it landing on orange.
This is also affected by your luck in the day, higher luck means there is even a higher chance of the spinner landing on green. Your daily luck can be checked in the morning, before you go to the fair by interacting with the television in your home. Then you select “Fortune Teller” and it will give you an indication about your luck for the day.
Keep in mind that probability does not guarantee that any single roll is going to land on green, so it is important to protect yourself against losses despite the increased chance of winning. To do this, the amount you should bet with each spin is calculated below.
If you start with 1,000 Star Tokens
Our formulas are based on the Kelly criterion for bet sizing. They also assume that you are beginning with the 1,000 Star Tokens you receive from Mayor Lewis for winning the Grange Display contest.
In this case, you should always bet 160 on green winning. If you are correct then you continuously repeat the bet with 160 Star Tokens. If you lose, then your bet changes. Now you should bet 320. If you lose the bet on 320, which happens only rarely, then you bet 640 on green. It is incredibly unlikely to lose all three of these bets in a row.
After a win, revert back to betting 160 Star Tokens on green and repeat the process until you have the amount of tokens you want. At the very least, you should keep betting until you have 2,800 Star Tokens to be able to buy both the Rarecrow and the Stardrop.